{"id":312,"date":"2026-08-29T04:02:44","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T19:02:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?p=312"},"modified":"2026-08-29T04:02:47","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T19:02:47","slug":"260829-%ec%ba%90%eb%b9%88%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c-%ec%97%b0%ec%84%a4-%ec%9a%94%ec%95%bd%eb%b3%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?p=312","title":{"rendered":"[260829] \uce90\ube48\uc6cc\uc2dc \uc5f0\uc124 \uc694\uc57d\ubcf8"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud1a0\uc2a4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc62c\ub838\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud648\ud398\uc774\uc9c0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud558\ub098 \uc62c\ub824\ubcf8\ub2e4.<br>\uce90\ube48\uc6cc\uc2dc\uc758 \uc624\ub298 \uc5f0\uc124 \uc694\uc57d\ubcf8\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc804\uccb4\uc801\uc778 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870 (\uac15\ub825\ud55c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc131\ud5a5\uacfc \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4(\uc120\uc81c\uc801 \uc548\ub0b4)\uc758 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \ud3d0\uc9c0: \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ubbf8\ub9ac \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ud78c\ud2b8\ub85c \uc54c\ub824\uc8fc\ub358 \uad00\ud589\uc744 \uc911\ub2e8\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \uc120\uc5b8\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc785\ub9cc \ubc14\ub77c\ubcf4\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uace0 '\uc2e4\uc81c \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130'\uc5d0 \uc2a4\uc2a4\ub85c \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\ub77c\ub294 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uc744 \ucd5c\uc6b0\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub294 \ub9e4\ud30c(Hawkish) \uae30\uc870: \ud604\uc7ac \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58\uc778 2%\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc9c0\uc801\ud558\uba70, \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \ucd94\uc138\uac00 \ud655\uc2e4\ud788 \uaebe\uc77c \ub54c\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud0c0\ud611\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\uc9c0\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub3c5\ub9bd\uc801\uc778 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uae30\ubc18 \uc758\uc0ac\uacb0\uc815: \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uac10\uc774\ub098 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc778 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0 \ud718\ub458\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0, \uc2e4\ubb3c \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc815\ud655\ud55c \ucd94\uc138 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\ub9cc \uae30\ubc18\ud558\uc5ec \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ud3bc\uce58\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud604\uc7ac \uacbd\uc81c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud3c9\uac00<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\uc5f0\uc124\ubb38\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \uacbd\uc81c \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 '\uc131\uc7a5\uacfc \uc18c\ube44\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uacac\uc870\ud558\ub098, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubd88\uc528\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uc0b4\uc544\uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\ud0dc'\ub85c \uc694\uc57d\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uac15\ub825\ud55c \uae30\uc5c5 \uc774\uc775\uacfc \ud22c\uc790: S&amp;P 500 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc774\uc775\uc774 20% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc99d\uac00\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc790\ubcf8 \uc9c0\ucd9c(Capex)\uc774 9% \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uc5ec \uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ub178\ub3d9 \ubc0f \uc18c\ube44 \uc2dc\uc7a5: \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960 4.1%\ub85c \uc644\uc804 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569\ud558\uba70, \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc2e4\uc9c8 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uacfc \ubbfc\uac04 \uad6d\ub0b4 \ucd5c\uc885 \uad6c\ub9e4(PDFP)\uac00 \uac01\uac01 2%, 3% \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uba70 \ud0c4\ud0c4\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc6b0\ub824\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 (\ud575\uc2ec \ubb38\uc81c): 12\uac1c\uc6d4 PCE\uac00 3.7%\ub85c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\uace0, PCE \ubc14\uc2a4\ucf13 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc758 \uc808\ubc18 \uc774\uc0c1(54%)\uc774 3% \ub118\uac8c \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc911\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc5ec\ub984\uc758 \uc9c0\ud45c \ud558\ub77d\uc744 '\uadfc\ubcf8\uc801 \ucd94\uc138\uc758 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \uac1c\uc120'\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\uc815\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc0f \uc139\ud130\ubcc4 \ud30c\uae09 \ud6a8\uacfc<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\uccb4 : \uc870\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac10\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud6c4\ud1f4\ud558\uba70 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uac00\uc774\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778\uc774 \uc0ac\ub77c\uc9c0\ubbc0\ub85c, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6d4\uc758 CPI, \uace0\uc6a9 \uc9c0\ud45c \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uadf9\uc2ec\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uae0d\uc815\uc801 \/ \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \uc139\ud130 : AI \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ubc0f \uae30\uc220\uc8fc (\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4, \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\ub4dc, \uc804\ub825): \uc62c\ud574 \uc790\ubcf8 \uc9c0\ucd9c \uc99d\uac00\ubd84\uc758 \uc808\ubc18 \uc774\uc0c1\uc774 AI \uc124\ube44 \uad6c\ucd95\uc5d0 \ubab0\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uba85\uc2dc\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac70\uc2dc \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uae34\ucd95 \uae30\uc870 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc758 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc801\uc778 \uc790\ubcf8 \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc9d1\uc911\ub418\ub294 \ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \uc8fc\ub3c4 \uc139\ud130\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ubd80\uc815\uc801 \/ \ucde8\uc57d \uc139\ud130 : \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0, \uc911\uc18c\ud615\uc8fc (\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ubbfc\uac10\uc8fc): \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 '\ub354 \ub192\uac8c, \ub354 \uc624\ub798(Higher for Longer)' \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubd80\ucc44 \ube44\uc728\uc774 \ub192\uac70\ub098 \uc790\uae08 \uc870\ub2ec \ube44\uc6a9\uc5d0 \ubbfc\uac10\ud55c \uc139\ud130\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uc774\uc790 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uae30\ud0c0 \ud575\uc2ec \ucc38\uace0 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>AI\uc758 \uac70\uc2dc \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825 \uc8fc\uc2dc: \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 AI\ub97c \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \ud14c\ub9c8\uac00 \uc544\ub2cc \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uacfc \uace0\uc6a9, \uc790\ubcf8 \ud6a8\uc728\uc131\uc744 \ubc14\uafc0 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 '\uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ubc94\uc6a9 \uae30\uc220\uc774\uc790 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uc694\uc18c'\ub85c \uc778\uc2dd\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc5f0\uc900 \ud0dc\uc2a4\ud06c\ud3ec\uc2a4\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc7a5\uae30 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ubcc0\uc218\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ucc45\uc784\uc758 \uc18c\uc7ac \uba85\ud655\ud654: 65\uac1c\uc6d4\uac04 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub41c \ub192\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc758 \ucc45\uc784\uc774 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc5d0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc778\uc815\ud558\uba70, \ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815 \ubaa9\ud45c \ub2ec\uc131\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc131\uc744 \uac78\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/code><\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud1a0\uc2a4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc62c\ub838\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud648\ud398\uc774\uc9c0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud558\ub098 \uc62c\ub824\ubcf8\ub2e4.\uce90\ube48\uc6cc\uc2dc\uc758 \uc624\ub298 \uc5f0\uc124 \uc694\uc57d\ubcf8\uc774\ub2e4. \uc804\uccb4\uc801\uc778 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870 (\uac15\ub825\ud55c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc131\ud5a5\uacfc \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654) \ud604\uc7ac \uacbd\uc81c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud3c9\uac00 \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc0f \uc139\ud130\ubcc4 \ud30c\uae09 \ud6a8\uacfc \uae30\ud0c0 \ud575\uc2ec \ucc38\uace0 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[83,84,85],"class_list":["post-312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-29","tag-83","tag-84","tag-85"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=312"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":313,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312\/revisions\/313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}