{"id":336,"date":"2026-09-17T03:42:17","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T18:42:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?p=336"},"modified":"2026-09-17T03:42:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T18:42:21","slug":"260917-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9a%94%ec%95%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?p=336","title":{"rendered":"[260917] \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uc694\uc57d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\uc774 \ubb38\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8 \ub3d9\ubd80\uc2dc\uac04(EDT) \uae30\uc900 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4 16\uc77c \uc624\ud6c4 2\uc2dc, \ud55c\uad6d \uc2dc\uac04(UTC+9) \uae30\uc900 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4 17\uc77c \uc624\uc804 3\uc2dc<\/strong>\uc5d0 \uacf5\uc2dd \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc57d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\uc774\ubc88 9\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uae30\uc870\ub294 “\uacac\uace0\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \uace0\uc6a9, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub048\uc801\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c(Higher for Longer)\uc758 \uac15\ud654”\ub85c \uc694\uc57d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. \uc9c0\ud45c\ubcc4 \uc138\ubd80 \uc804\ub9dd (6\uc6d4 vs 9\uc6d4 \ube44\uad50)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\uc9c0\ud45c (\uc911\uc559\uac12 \uae30\uc900)<\/strong><\/td>2026\ub144 (9\uc6d4 \/ 6\uc6d4)<\/strong><\/td>2027\ub144 (9\uc6d4 \/ 6\uc6d4)<\/strong><\/td>2028\ub144 (9\uc6d4 \/ 6\uc6d4)<\/strong><\/td>2029\ub144 (\uc2e0\uaddc)<\/strong><\/td>\uc7a5\uae30(Longer run)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
\uc2e4\uc9c8 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 (%)<\/strong><\/sup><\/td>2.3<\/strong> \/ 2.2<\/td>2.4<\/strong> \/ 2.3<\/td>2.1<\/strong> \/ 2.2<\/td>2.2<\/strong><\/td>2.0<\/strong> \/ 2.0<\/td><\/tr>
\uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960 (%)<\/strong><\/sup><\/td>4.1<\/strong> \/ 4.3<\/td>4.1<\/strong> \/ 4.3<\/td>4.1<\/strong> \/ 4.2<\/td>4.1<\/strong><\/td>4.2<\/strong> \/ 4.2<\/td><\/tr>
\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 PCE (%)<\/strong><\/sup><\/td>3.7<\/strong> \/ 3.6<\/td>2.3<\/strong> \/ 2.3<\/td>2.0<\/strong> \/ 2.0<\/td>2.1<\/strong><\/td>2.0<\/strong> \/ 2.0<\/td><\/tr>
\uadfc\uc6d0(Core) PCE (%)<\/strong><\/sup><\/td>3.4<\/strong> \/ 3.3<\/td>2.5<\/strong> \/ 2.5<\/td>2.0<\/strong> \/ 2.2<\/td>2.1<\/strong><\/td>–<\/td><\/tr>
\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(FFR) (%)<\/strong><\/sup><\/td>4.1<\/strong> \/ 3.8<\/td>4.1<\/strong> \/ 3.6<\/td>3.9<\/strong> \/ 3.4<\/td>3.6<\/strong><\/td>3.2<\/strong> \/ 3.1<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

3. \uc138\ubd80 \ubd80\ubb38\ubcc4 \ubd84\uc11d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

1) \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c: \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815 \ubc0f \uc778\ud558 \uc18d\ub3c4 \uac10\uc18d<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd \uc0c1\ud5a5:<\/strong> 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc911\uc559\uac12\uc774 6\uc6d4\uc758 3.8%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.1%\ub85c 0.3%p \uc0c1\ud5a5\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 2027~2028\ub144 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0:<\/strong> 2027\ub144 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 3.6%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.1%\ub85c 0.5%p \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub418\uc5b4 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac(Longer-run) \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\ud5a5:<\/strong> \uc7a5\uae30 \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac \uc911\uc559\uac12\uc774 \uae30\uc874 3.1%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.2%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    2) \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \ubc0f \ub178\ub3d9 \uc2dc\uc7a5: \ud0c4\ud0c4\ud55c \uacbd\uae30<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • GDP \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 \uc0c1\ud5a5:<\/strong> 2026\ub144(2.3%)\uacfc 2027\ub144(2.4%) \uc2e4\uc9c8 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 \uac01\uac01 \uc9c0\ub09c 6\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.1%p\uc529 \uc0c1\ud5a5\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 \ud558\ud5a5:<\/strong> 2026\ub144\uacfc 2027\ub144 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960 \uc911\uc559\uac12\uc774 \uae30\uc874 4.3%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.1%\ub85c \uac01\uac01 0.2%p \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      3) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubc0f \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud3c9\uac00: \uc0c1\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc794\uc874<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      • \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc0c1\ud5a5:<\/strong> 2026\ub144 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 PCE\ub294 3.7%, \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE\ub294 3.4%\ub85c \ub2e8\uae30 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790 \uc704\ud5d8 \ud3c9\uac00(Risk Assessment):<\/strong> \ub2e4\uc218\uc758 FOMC \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 ‘\uc0c1\ubc29 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc6b0\uc138(Weighted to the upside)’\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        \uc774 \ubb38\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8 \ub3d9\ubd80\uc2dc\uac04(EDT) \uae30\uc900 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4 16\uc77c \uc624\ud6c4 2\uc2dc, \ud55c\uad6d \uc2dc\uac04(UTC+9) \uae30\uc900 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4 17\uc77c \uc624\uc804 3\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uacf5\uc2dd \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. 1. \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc57d \uc774\ubc88 9\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uae30\uc870\ub294 “\uacac\uace0\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \uace0\uc6a9, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub048\uc801\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c(Higher for Longer)\uc758 \uac15\ud654”\ub85c \uc694\uc57d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 2. \uc9c0\ud45c\ubcc4 \uc138\ubd80 \uc804\ub9dd (6\uc6d4 vs 9\uc6d4 \ube44\uad50) \uc9c0\ud45c (\uc911\uc559\uac12 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[90,92,93,94],"class_list":["post-336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-29","tag-90","tag-92","tag-93","tag-94"],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":false,"thumbnail":false,"medium":false,"medium_large":false,"large":false,"1536x1536":false,"2048x2048":false,"blogsy-small":false,"blogsy-small-tall":false,"blogsy-small-square":false,"blogsy-small-masonry":false,"blogsy-medium":false,"blogsy-medium-masonry":false,"blogsy-large":false,"blogsy-wide":false},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Arphile","author_link":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?author=1"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"\uc774 \ubb38\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8 \ub3d9\ubd80\uc2dc\uac04(EDT) \uae30\uc900 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4 16\uc77c \uc624\ud6c4 2\uc2dc, \ud55c\uad6d \uc2dc\uac04(UTC+9) \uae30\uc900 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4 17\uc77c \uc624\uc804 3\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uacf5\uc2dd \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. 1. \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc57d \uc774\ubc88 9\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uae30\uc870\ub294 “\uacac\uace0\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \uace0\uc6a9, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub048\uc801\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c(Higher for Longer)\uc758 \uac15\ud654”\ub85c \uc694\uc57d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 2. \uc9c0\ud45c\ubcc4 \uc138\ubd80 \uc804\ub9dd (6\uc6d4 vs 9\uc6d4 \ube44\uad50) \uc9c0\ud45c (\uc911\uc559\uac12…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=336"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/336\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":337,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/336\/revisions\/337"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}