{"id":340,"date":"2026-09-22T23:35:43","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T14:35:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?p=340"},"modified":"2026-09-22T23:40:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T14:40:08","slug":"260922-%ea%b3%a0%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ed%99%98%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%bc-%ec%a3%bc%ec%8b%9d%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5%ec%9d%98-%ea%b5%ac%ec%a1%b0%ec%a0%81-%eb%94%94%ec%bb%a4%ed%94%8c%eb%a7%81-%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?p=340","title":{"rendered":"[260922] \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd\uacfc \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ub514\ucee4\ud50c\ub9c1 \ubd84\uc11d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\ub9ac\uc11c\uce58\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\uc544\ub798 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc740 Gemini \uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \ubd84\uc11d\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc624\ub974\ub294\ub370 \uc65c \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc624\ub974\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd84\uc11d\uae00\uc774\ub2e4.
\uac1c\uc778\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c \ub0b4\uc6a9\ub4e4\uc774 \uc801\uc6a9\ub41c\uac8c \uc544\ub2cc\uac00 \uc2f6\ub2e4.
1. \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\uc548\uac10\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\uac83\uc774 \uc120\ubc18\uc601\ub418\uc5c8\ub294\ub370, \uc2e4\uc81c \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc545\uc7ac\uac00 \ud574\uc18c\ub41c\uac78\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ud55c\ub2e4.
2. 1\uc758 \uc774\uc288\ub85c \ub20c\ub824\uc11c \uc800\uac00\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc774 \ub41c \uc131\uc7a5\/\uac00\uce58\uc8fc\uac00 \uc800\ub834\ud574\uc84c\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0, \uadf8\ub85c\uc778\ud55c \uc800\uac00\ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4
3. AI \uc139\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uace0\uc788\uace0, \ub9c8\uce58 \uad70\ube44\uacbd\uc7c1\ub9c8\ub0e5 \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uba48\ucd9c \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \ub418\uc5c8\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ub85c \ud574\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uace0\uc788\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 2\uc758 \uc774\uc288\ub85c \ub20c\ub838\ub358 \uc139\ud130\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc870\uae08 \ub354 \ud3ed\ubc1c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\uace0\uc788\uc5b4 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc885\ubaa9\ub4e4\uc774 \ub20c\ub9ac\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc9c0\uc218 \uc790\uccb4\ub97c \ubc29\uc5b4\ud574\uc8fc\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0\uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc544\ub798 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc740 AI \ubd84\uc11d\uc774\ubbc0\ub85c \ud22c\uc790\uc5d0 \ucc38\uace0\ub9cc \ud558\uba74 \ub418\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud55c\ub2e4.
\ud22c\uc790\uc758 \ucc45\uc784\uc740 \ud56d\uc0c1 \ubcf8\uc778\uc5d0\uac8c \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uba85\uc2ec\ud558\ub77c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2026\ub144 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac & \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac15\uc138 \uad6c\uc870 \ubd84\uc11d \ub300\uc2dc\ubcf4\ub4dc<\/title>\n <script src=\"https:\/\/cdn.tailwindcss.com\"><\/script>\n <script src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jsdelivr.net\/npm\/chart.js\"><\/script>\n <style>\n body {\n background-color: #faf8f5;\n color: #0f172a;\n font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", Roboto, \"Helvetica Neue\", Arial, sans-serif;\n }\n .chart-container {\n position: relative;\n width: 100%;\n max-width: 680px;\n margin-left: auto;\n margin-right: auto;\n height: 320px;\n max-height: 400px;\n }\n @media (min-width: 768px) {\n .chart-container {\n height: 360px;\n }\n }\n .tab-btn.active {\n background-color: #1e3a8a;\n color: #ffffff;\n border-color: #1e3a8a;\n }\n .tab-btn {\n transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out;\n }\n .glass-card {\n background-color: #ffffff;\n border: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05), 0 2px 4px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.03);\n }\n <\/style>\n<\/head>\n<body class=\"min-h-screen flex flex-col justify-between\">\n\n <header class=\"bg-slate-900 text-white border-b border-slate-800 sticky top-0 z-50\">\n <div class=\"max-w-7xl mx-auto px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8 py-4\">\n <div class=\"flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center md:justify-between gap-4\">\n <div>\n <div class=\"flex items-center gap-2\">\n <span class=\"px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded-full text-xs font-semibold bg-emerald-500\/20 text-emerald-400 border border-emerald-500\/30\">2026\ub144 9\uc6d4 \uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d<\/span>\n <span class=\"px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded-full text-xs font-semibold bg-blue-500\/20 text-blue-400 border border-blue-500\/30\">\uc218\uc775\ub960 \uace1\uc120 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc 0.95%p<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <h1 class=\"text-xl sm:text-2xl font-bold tracking-tight mt-1\">\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd\uacfc \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ub514\ucee4\ud50c\ub9c1 \ubd84\uc11d<\/h1>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"flex items-center gap-3 text-sm bg-slate-800\/80 p-2.5 rounded-lg border border-slate-700\">\n <div>\n <div class=\"text-slate-400 text-xs\">\uc5f0\uc900 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac<\/div>\n <div class=\"font-bold text-amber-400\">4.00% <span class=\"text-xs font-normal text-slate-300\">(\ubaa9\ud45c 4.10~4.25%)<\/span><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"h-8 w-px bg-slate-700\"><\/div>\n <div>\n <div class=\"text-slate-400 text-xs\">10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac<\/div>\n <div class=\"font-bold text-blue-400\">4.95% <span class=\"text-xs font-normal text-slate-300\">(\uace0\uc810 5.0%+ \ub300\ube44 \uc548\uc815)<\/span><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"h-8 w-px bg-slate-700\"><\/div>\n <div>\n <div class=\"text-slate-400 text-xs\">\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \uc120\ubb3c<\/div>\n <div class=\"font-bold text-emerald-400\">30,000+ <span class=\"text-xs font-normal text-slate-300\">(31k \uc548\ucc29 \uc2dc\ub3c4)<\/span><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/header>\n\n <main class=\"max-w-7xl mx-auto px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8 py-6 flex-grow w-full\">\n\n <nav class=\"flex flex-wrap gap-2 border-b border-slate-200 pb-4 mb-6\">\n <button onclick=\"switchTab('tab-macro')\" id=\"btn-tab-macro\" class=\"tab-btn active px-4 py-2.5 rounded-lg font-medium text-sm border border-slate-200 hover:border-slate-300\">\n 1. \uac70\uc2dc \ub514\ucee4\ud50c\ub9c1 (\uc9c8\ubb38 1)\n <\/button>\n <button onclick=\"switchTab('tab-bond')\" id=\"btn-tab-bond\" class=\"tab-btn px-4 py-2.5 rounded-lg font-medium text-sm border border-slate-200 hover:border-slate-300\">\n 2. \ucc44\uad8c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc & \uc2e0\uc6a9\n <\/button>\n <button onclick=\"switchTab('tab-semicon')\" id=\"btn-tab-semicon\" class=\"tab-btn px-4 py-2.5 rounded-lg font-medium text-sm border border-slate-200 hover:border-slate-300\">\n 3. AI CapEx & \uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\n <\/button>\n <button onclick=\"switchTab('tab-global')\" id=\"btn-tab-global\" class=\"tab-btn px-4 py-2.5 rounded-lg font-medium text-sm border border-slate-200 hover:border-slate-300\">\n 4. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 & \uc704\ud5d8\n <\/button>\n <button onclick=\"switchTab('tab-strategy')\" id=\"btn-tab-strategy\" class=\"tab-btn px-4 py-2.5 rounded-lg font-medium text-sm border border-slate-200 hover:border-slate-300\">\n 5. \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ub17c\ub9ac & \ub300\uc751 (\uc9c8\ubb38 2, 3)\n <\/button>\n <\/nav>\n\n <section id=\"tab-macro\" class=\"tab-content space-y-6\">\n <div class=\"glass-card p-6 rounded-xl border-l-4 border-l-blue-900\">\n <h2 class=\"text-lg font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">1. \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc18d \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\uc7a5(Bull Market)\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc6d0\uc778 \ubd84\uc11d<\/h2>\n <p class=\"text-slate-600 text-sm leading-relaxed\">\n \ubcf8 \uc139\uc158\uc740 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 4.00%\ub85c \uc778\uc0c1\ub418\uace0 \ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc778 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 4.95%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud558\ub294 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uacbd\uc2e0\ud558\ub294 \uc5ed\uc124\uc801 \uad6c\uc870\ub97c \ud574\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. traditional DCF(\ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984\ud560\uc778) \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \ud560\uc778\uc728 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ubd84\ubaa8 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ud3ed\ubc1c\uc801\uc778 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc774\uc775 \uc131\uc7a5(EPS) \ubd84\uc790\uac00 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc555\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uba54\ucee4\ub2c8\uc998\uc744 \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\ud558\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4\">\n <div class=\"glass-card p-5 rounded-xl border border-slate-200\">\n <div class=\"text-slate-500 text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider mb-1\">S&P 500 2026E EPS<\/div>\n <div class=\"text-3xl font-extrabold text-blue-900\">$340.00<\/div>\n <div class=\"text-xs text-emerald-600 font-medium mt-1\">\u25b2 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 +24.0% ~ +28.7% \ud3ed\uc99d<\/div>\n <p class=\"text-slate-500 text-xs mt-3\">2027\ub144 $385.00, \uc81c\ud37c\ub9ac\uc2a4 \ub099\uad00 \ubaa8\ub378 \uae30\uc900 $450.00\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc804\ub9dd\ub418\uba70 \uba40\ud2f0\ud50c \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uc804\uba74 \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc911\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"glass-card p-5 rounded-xl border border-slate-200\">\n <div class=\"text-slate-500 text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider mb-1\">\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc704\ud5d8 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 (ERP)<\/div>\n <div class=\"text-3xl font-extrabold text-amber-600\">-0.27% ~ 0.2%<\/div>\n <div class=\"text-xs text-amber-700 font-medium mt-1\">\uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \ud3c9\uade0(3~5%) \ub300\ube44 \uadf9\ub3c4 \uc555\ucd95<\/div>\n <p class=\"text-slate-500 text-xs mt-3\">Earnings Yield(~5.0%) \ub300\ube44 \ucc44\uad8c \uae08\ub9ac(4.95%)\uac00 \ube44\uc2f8 \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, AI \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ud601\uc2e0\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ubbf8\ub798 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc635\uc158\uc774 \uc120\ubc18\uc601\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"glass-card p-5 rounded-xl border border-slate-200\">\n <div class=\"text-slate-500 text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider mb-1\">\uacf5\ud3ec \u00b7 \ud0d0\uc695 \uc9c0\uc218 (Fear & Greed)<\/div>\n <div class=\"text-3xl font-extrabold text-emerald-600\">38 <span class=\"text-lg font-normal text-slate-500\">\/ 100<\/span><\/div>\n <div class=\"text-xs text-emerald-600 font-medium mt-1\">\u25b2 \ucd5c\uadfc 26(\uadf9\ub3c4 \uacf5\ud3ec)\uc5d0\uc11c \uae09\ubc18\ub4f1<\/div>\n <p class=\"text-slate-500 text-xs mt-3\">10\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 5.0%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.95%\ub85c \uc548\uc815\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \ucc44\uad8c \uc790\uacbd\ub2e8 \ud22c\ub9e4\uac00 \uc8fc\ucda4\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \ud22c\uc790 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uac00 \uac00\ud30c\ub974\uac8c \ud68c\ubcf5 \uc911\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-12 gap-6\">\n <div class=\"lg:col-span-7 glass-card p-5 rounded-xl\">\n <div class=\"flex justify-between items-center mb-4\">\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900\">\ud560\uc778\uc728(\uae08\ub9ac) vs S&P 500 EPS \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \ucd94\uc774<\/h3>\n <span class=\"text-xs bg-slate-100 text-slate-600 px-2 py-1 rounded\">2023 – 2027E<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-500 mb-3\">\uc544\ub798 \ucc28\ud2b8\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ud560\uc778\uc728 \uc555\ub825\uacfc \uc774\ub97c \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud558\ub294 \uc774\uc775 \uc131\uc7a5(EPS)\uc758 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc775 \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc555\ub3c4\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n <div class=\"chart-container\">\n <canvas id=\"chartEpsRate\"><\/canvas>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"lg:col-span-5 glass-card p-5 rounded-xl flex flex-col justify-between\">\n <div>\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">\uc5ed\ub300 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uacfc EPS \ube44\uad50<\/h3>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-500 mb-4\">\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc790\uccb4\uac00 \uc8fc\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uc720\ubc1c\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc218\uc694 \uacac\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uc774\uc775 \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \ub3d9\ubc18\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n <div class=\"overflow-x-auto\">\n <table class=\"w-full text-xs text-left\">\n <thead class=\"bg-slate-100 text-slate-700\">\n <tr>\n <th class=\"p-2 rounded-l\">\uc0ac\uc774\ud074<\/th>\n <th class=\"p-2\">\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac<\/th>\n <th class=\"p-2\">S&P 500 EPS<\/th>\n <th class=\"p-2 rounded-r\">\uc99d\uc2dc \ubc18\uc751<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n <tbody class=\"divide-y divide-slate-100\">\n <tr>\n <td class=\"p-2 font-semibold\">1994~1995<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2\">3.00 \u2192 6.00%<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2 text-emerald-600\">+40%<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2\">\ub2f7\ucef4\ubc84\ube14 \ucd08\uc785 \ub7a0\ub9ac<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"p-2 font-semibold\">1999~2000<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2\">4.75 \u2192 6.50%<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2 text-emerald-600\">+27%<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2\">\ubc84\ube14 \uc815\uc810 \ud6c4 \uc870\uc815<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"p-2 font-semibold\">2004~2006<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2\">1.00 \u2192 5.25%<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2 text-emerald-600\">+60%<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2\">\uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30 \uc804 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac15\uc138<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr class=\"bg-blue-50\/60\">\n <td class=\"p-2 font-bold text-blue-900\">2025~2026<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2 font-bold text-blue-900\">3.75 \u2192 4.00%+<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2 font-bold text-emerald-600\">+28.7%<\/td>\n <td class=\"p-2 font-bold text-blue-900\">\uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \uacbd\uc2e0 \uc911<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"mt-4 p-3 bg-slate-50 rounded-lg text-xs text-slate-600 border border-slate-200\">\n <span class=\"font-bold text-slate-800\">\ud83d\udca1 \ud575\uc2ec \uc778\uc0ac\uc774\ud2b8:<\/span> \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uae30 \ucd08\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uba40\ud2f0\ud50c \uc870\uc815\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5 \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \uc2e4\uc801 \uc7a5\uc138\uac00 \ud655\uc778\ub418\uba74 6\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4\ubd80\ud130\ub294 \uc774\uc775 \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc744 \uc804\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n <section id=\"tab-bond\" class=\"tab-content hidden space-y-6\">\n <div class=\"glass-card p-6 rounded-xl border-l-4 border-l-teal-600\">\n <h2 class=\"text-lg font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">2. \ucc44\uad8c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubbf8\uc2dc \uad6c\uc870: 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac \ubc0f \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ucd95\uc18c\uc758 \uc758\ubbf8<\/h2>\n <p class=\"text-slate-600 text-sm leading-relaxed\">\n \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 3.75%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.00%\ub85c \uc778\uc0c1\ub418\uc5c8\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 10\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 5.00% \ucd08\uacfc \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c 4.95%\ub85c \uc548\uc815\ud654\ub418\uba70 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uac00 1.25%p\uc5d0\uc11c 0.95%p(1.00%p \uc774\ud558)\ub85c \ucd95\uc18c\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uace1\uc120 \ubc1c\uc791(Tantrum)\uc774 \uc885\ub8cc\ub418\uace0 \ucc44\uad8c \uc790\uacbd\ub2e8\uc758 \ud22c\ub9e4\uac00 \uc218\uc2b5\ub418\uc5c8\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud558\uba70, \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubd88\uc7a5\uc744 \uacac\uc778\ud55c \ud575\uc2ec \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ucd09\ub9e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc791\ub3d9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-12 gap-6\">\n <div class=\"lg:col-span-6 glass-card p-5 rounded-xl\">\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac \uad6c\uc131\uc694\uc18c \ubd84\ud574 (ACM \ubaa8\ub378)<\/h3>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-500 mb-4\">10\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac 4.95%\ub294 \uae30\ub300 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac(Expected Short Rate)\uc640 \uae30\uac04 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(Term Premium)\uc73c\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac 5% \ub3cc\ud30c\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubd88\uc548\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc \uc7ac\uc815 \uc801\uc790\ubc1c \uae30\uac04 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \ubc1c\uc791 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n <div class=\"chart-container\">\n <canvas id=\"chartAcmDecomp\"><\/canvas>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"lg:col-span-6 glass-card p-5 rounded-xl\">\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">\ud558\uc774\uc77c\ub4dc \uc635\uc158\uc870\uc815\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc (ICE BofA HY OAS)<\/h3>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-500 mb-4\">\ubd80\uc2e4\uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \ucc44\uad8c \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \ud558\uc774\uc77c\ub4dc OAS\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac 2.68%\ub85c \uadf9\ub3c4\uc758 \uc548\uc815\uc138\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uae30\uad00 \ubc0f \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uc81c\uacf5\uc790\uc758 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \ud30c\uc0b0 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ubd80\uc7ac\ud568\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n <div class=\"chart-container\">\n <canvas id=\"chartHyOas\"><\/canvas>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"glass-card p-5 rounded-xl\">\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900 mb-3\">\uae08\ub9ac \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \uc2dc\ubbac\ub808\uc774\ud130: \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uace1\uc120 \ubcc0\ud654 \uccb4\ud5d8<\/h3>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-500 mb-4\">\uc2ac\ub77c\uc774\ub354\ub97c \uc870\uc808\ud558\uc5ec \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 10\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ucd95\uc18c \ud6a8\uacfc \ubc0f \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc9c1\uc811 \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8\ud574\ubcf4\uc138\uc694.<\/p>\n\n <div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 items-center\">\n <div class=\"space-y-4\">\n <div>\n <div class=\"flex justify-between text-xs font-semibold text-slate-700 mb-1\">\n <span>\uc5f0\uc900 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac (Fed Funds Rate)<\/span>\n <span id=\"val-fed-rate\" class=\"text-blue-900 font-bold\">4.00%<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <input type=\"range\" id=\"input-fed-rate\" min=\"3.50\" max=\"4.50\" step=\"0.25\" value=\"4.00\" oninput=\"updateSpreadSim()\" class=\"w-full accent-blue-900\">\n <\/div>\n <div>\n <div class=\"flex justify-between text-xs font-semibold text-slate-700 mb-1\">\n <span>10\ub144\ubb3c \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac (10Y Yield)<\/span>\n <span id=\"val-10y-rate\" class=\"text-amber-600 font-bold\">4.95%<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <input type=\"range\" id=\"input-10y-rate\" min=\"4.25\" max=\"5.50\" step=\"0.05\" value=\"4.95\" oninput=\"updateSpreadSim()\" class=\"w-full accent-amber-600\">\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"bg-slate-50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-200 space-y-3\">\n <div class=\"flex justify-between items-center\">\n <span class=\"text-xs text-slate-500\">\uacc4\uc0b0\ub41c \uae08\ub9ac \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc<\/span>\n <span id=\"res-spread\" class=\"text-xl font-extrabold text-teal-700\">0.95%p<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"flex justify-between items-center\">\n <span class=\"text-xs text-slate-500\">\ucc44\uad8c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc0c1\ud0dc<\/span>\n <span id=\"res-status\" class=\"text-xs font-bold px-2 py-1 rounded bg-teal-100 text-teal-800\">\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \uc548\uc815\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ud68c\ubcf5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <p id=\"res-desc\" class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 border-t border-slate-200 pt-2\">\n \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uac00 1.00%p \uc774\ud558\ub85c \uc9c4\uc785\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ucc44\uad8c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc1c\uc791\uc774 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc6cc\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uac10\uc18c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc720\ud1b5 \uc790\uae08 \ud68c\uadc0\uac00 \uac15\ub825\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n <section id=\"tab-semicon\" class=\"tab-content hidden space-y-6\">\n <div class=\"glass-card p-6 rounded-xl border-l-4 border-l-amber-600\">\n <h2 class=\"text-lg font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">3. \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI) \ubc0f \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc288\ud37c\uc0ac\uc774\ud074: CapEx \ubc0f ROIC \ubd84\uc11d<\/h2>\n <p class=\"text-slate-600 text-sm leading-relaxed\">\n \uc8fc\uc2dd \ubd88\uc7a5\uc744 \uc774\ub044\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc2e4\uccb4\ub294 CPU \uc911\uc2ec\uc5d0\uc11c HBM\/DRAM \uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\ub85c \uc21c\ud658\ub9e4\uac00 \uc804\uac1c\ub418\ub294 ‘\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc288\ud37c\uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654’\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ube45\ud14c\ud06c(\ud558\uc774\ud37c\uc2a4\ucf00\uc77c\ub7ec)\uc758 \ub9c9\ub300\ud55c CapEx \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc790\ubcf8\ube44\uc6a9(WACC)\uc744 \uc555\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ud22c\ud558\uc790\ubcf8\uc218\uc775\ub960(ROIC)\uc744 \ucc3d\ucd9c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-12 gap-6\">\n <div class=\"lg:col-span-7 glass-card p-5 rounded-xl\">\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">\uc8fc\uc694 \uc139\ud130\ubcc4 \ud22c\ud558\uc790\ubcf8\uc218\uc775\ub960(ROIC) vs \uac00\uc911\ud3c9\uade0\uc790\ubcf8\ube44\uc6a9(WACC)<\/h3>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-500 mb-3\">\uace0\uae08\ub9ac\ub85c \uc790\ubcf8\ube44\uc6a9(WACC)\uc774 10~12% \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\ub098, \ube45\ud14c\ud06c \ubc0f \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 ROIC\ub294 35~65%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud574 \ubd80\ucc44\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ud655\uc7a5\uc774 \uae30\uc5c5 \uac00\uce58\ub97c \uadf9\ub300\ud654\uc2dc\ud0b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n <div class=\"chart-container\">\n <canvas id=\"chartRoicWacc\"><\/canvas>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"lg:col-span-5 glass-card p-5 rounded-xl flex flex-col justify-between space-y-4\">\n <div>\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">\uc21c\ud658\ub9e4\uc758 \uad6c\uc870: CPU\uc5d0\uc11c \uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac(HBM)\ub85c<\/h3>\n <div class=\"space-y-3 mt-3\">\n <div class=\"p-3 bg-slate-50 rounded-lg border border-slate-200\">\n <div class=\"font-bold text-xs text-slate-800\">1\ub2e8\uacc4: \uc5f0\uc0b0 \uc7a5\uce58 \ubd90 (CPU \/ GPU)<\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-500 mt-1\">\ucd08\uae30 LLM \ud559\uc2b5\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uc5f0\uc0b0 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ud3ed\ubc1c\ud558\uba70 \uc99d\uc2dc 1\ucc28 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc9c4\uc785.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"p-3 bg-amber-50 rounded-lg border border-amber-200\">\n <div class=\"font-bold text-xs text-amber-900\">2\ub2e8\uacc4: \uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac \ubcd1\ubaa9 \ud604\uc0c1 (Memory Wall)<\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-amber-800 mt-1\">\uc5f0\uc0b0\uc18d\ub3c4\ub97c \ub0b8\ub4dc\/DRAM\uc774 \ub530\ub77c\uac00\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud574 HBM \uc218\uc694 \ud3ed\ubc1c. \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub77c\uc778\uc774 HBM\uc73c\ub85c \uc3e0\ub9ac\uba70 \ubc94\uc6a9 DRAM \uacf5\uae09 \ubd80\uc871 \ubcd1\ubc1c.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"p-3 bg-emerald-50 rounded-lg border border-emerald-200\">\n <div class=\"font-bold text-xs text-emerald-900\">3\ub2e8\uacc4: \uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac \uc288\ud37c\uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654<\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-emerald-800 mt-1\">\uc774\uc911 \uacf5\uae09 \uacbd\uc0c9(Dual Supply Tightness)\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1. \uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac \ubc38\ub958\uccb4\uc778\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc21c\ud658\ub9e4 \uc720\uc785.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"p-3 bg-slate-900 text-white rounded-lg text-xs\">\n <div class=\"font-bold text-amber-400 mb-1\">\ube45\ud14c\ud06c 4\uc0ac 2026E AI CapEx \ud569\uacc4<\/div>\n <div class=\"text-2xl font-extrabold\">$600B ~ $700B+<\/div>\n <div class=\"text-slate-400 mt-1\">\ub9c8\uc774\ud06c\ub85c\uc18c\ud504\ud2b8, \uad6c\uae00, \uc544\ub9c8\uc874, \uba54\ud0c0\uc758 \uc5ed\ub300 \ucd5c\ub300 \uaddc\ubaa8 \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"glass-card p-5 rounded-xl\">\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">\uae30\uc5c5 \uac00\uce58 \ucc3d\ucd9c(EVA) \uacc4\uc0b0\uae30: \ube45\ud14c\ud06c CapEx\uc758 \uc815\ub2f9\uc131 \uc2dc\ubbac\ub808\uc774\uc158<\/h3>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-500 mb-4\">\ud22c\uc790 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc640 \uc790\ubcf8\ube44\uc6a9, \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc744 \uc870\uc808\ud558\uc5ec \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ubd80\ucc44\ub97c \ub298\ub824 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 \ube45\ud14c\ud06c\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ubd80\uac00\uac00\uce58\ub97c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud574 \ubcf4\uc138\uc694.<\/p>\n <div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-4 gap-4 items-center\">\n <div>\n <label class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 font-semibold block mb-1\">CapEx Investment ($B)<\/label>\n <input type=\"number\" id=\"eva-capex\" value=\"150\" class=\"w-full text-xs p-2 border border-slate-300 rounded font-semibold\">\n <\/div>\n <div>\n <label class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 font-semibold block mb-1\">ROIC (%)<\/label>\n <input type=\"number\" id=\"eva-roic\" value=\"45\" class=\"w-full text-xs p-2 border border-slate-300 rounded font-semibold text-emerald-600\">\n <\/div>\n <div>\n <label class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 font-semibold block mb-1\">WACC (%)<\/label>\n <input type=\"number\" id=\"eva-wacc\" value=\"11\" class=\"w-full text-xs p-2 border border-slate-300 rounded font-semibold text-amber-600\">\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"bg-blue-50 p-3 rounded-lg border border-blue-200\">\n <div class=\"text-xs text-slate-500\">\uc21c \ucc3d\ucd9c \uac00\uce58 (EVA)<\/div>\n <div id=\"eva-result\" class=\"text-lg font-bold text-blue-900\">+$51.0 Billion<\/div>\n <div class=\"text-[10px] text-blue-700\">\uace0\uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc8fc\uc8fc \uac00\uce58 \ud3ed\ubc1c\uc801 \uc99d\ub300<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n <section id=\"tab-global\" class=\"tab-content hidden space-y-6\">\n <div class=\"glass-card p-6 rounded-xl border-l-4 border-l-slate-800\">\n <h2 class=\"text-lg font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">4. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \ub2e4\ubcc0\ud654 \ubc0f \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc694\uc778<\/h2>\n <p class=\"text-slate-600 text-sm leading-relaxed\">\n \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900 \uc678\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc77c\ubcf8, \uc720\ub7fd, \ud55c\uad6d, \uc911\uad6d \ub4f1 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uac01\uad6d\uc758 \uc0ac\uc815\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ub2e4\ubcc0\ud654\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ)\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc5d4 \uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc \uccad\uc0b0 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc640 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub9e4\ud06c\ub85c \uc9c0\ub8b0\ubc2d\uc744 \ub2e4\uac01\ub3c4\ub85c \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-4\">\n <div class=\"glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border-t-4 border-t-red-600\">\n <div class=\"flex justify-between items-center mb-2\">\n <span class=\"font-bold text-sm text-slate-900\">\uc77c\ubcf8 (BOJ)<\/span>\n <span class=\"text-xs bg-red-100 text-red-800 px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-semibold\">\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 (1.25%)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 leading-relaxed\">\n \uc5d4 \uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc(1\uc870~4\uc870$) \uccad\uc0b0 \uacf5\ud3ec\uac00 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\ub098, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc120\ubc18\uc601 \ubc0f AI \uae30\ub300\uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \uc870\ub2ec \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc555\ub3c4\ud558\uba70 \uc790\uae08 \uc720\ucd9c\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc911\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border-t-4 border-t-blue-600\">\n <div class=\"flex justify-between items-center mb-2\">\n <span class=\"font-bold text-sm text-slate-900\">\uc720\ub7fd (ECB)<\/span>\n <span class=\"text-xs bg-blue-100 text-blue-800 px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-semibold\">\uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc778\ud558\/\ub3d9\uacb0<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 leading-relaxed\">\n \uc911\ub3d9 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uacfc \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc6b0\ub824 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \uc544\uc2ac\uc544\uc2ac\ud55c \uc911\ub9bd \ub178\uc120\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border-t-4 border-t-emerald-600\">\n <div class=\"flex justify-between items-center mb-2\">\n <span class=\"font-bold text-sm text-slate-900\">\ud55c\uad6d (BOK)<\/span>\n <span class=\"text-xs bg-emerald-100 text-emerald-800 px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-semibold\">\uc2e0\uc911 \uc6b4\uc6a9<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 leading-relaxed\">\n \ud55c\ubbf8 \uae08\ub9ac \uc5ed\uc804 \ud658\uc728 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc640 \uac00\uacc4\ubd80\ucc44\/\ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 PF \ubd80\uc2e4 \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\uc2dc\uac74\uc804\uc131 \ud540\uc14b \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uad6c\uc0ac \uc911\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border-t-4 border-t-amber-600\">\n <div class=\"flex justify-between items-center mb-2\">\n <span class=\"font-bold text-sm text-slate-900\">\uc911\uad6d (PBOC)<\/span>\n <span class=\"text-xs bg-amber-100 text-amber-800 px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-semibold\">\ub3c5\uc790 \uc644\ud654<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 leading-relaxed\">\n \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ub514\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubc29\uc5b4\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc9c0\uc900\uc728 \uc778\ud558 \ub4f1 \uc644\ud654 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uba70 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc644\ucda9\uc7ac \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"glass-card p-5 rounded-xl\">\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900 mb-3\">\uc8fc\uc694 \uc2dc\uc7a5 ‘\uc704\ud5d8 \ud2b8\ub9ac\uac70(Trigger)’ \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1 \uc2e0\ud638\ub4f1<\/h3>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-500 mb-4\">\uc544\ub798 \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\ud45c \uc911 \uc2e0\ud638\ub4f1\uc774 \uacbd\uace0 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uba74 \ube44\uc911 \ud655\ub300 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc989\uc2dc \uc911\ub2e8\ud558\uace0 \ud604\uae08\ud654 \ubc0f \uad00\ub9dd\uc138\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n <div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4\">\n <div class=\"p-4 bg-slate-50 rounded-xl border border-slate-200\">\n <div class=\"flex items-center gap-2 mb-2\">\n <span class=\"w-3 h-3 rounded-full bg-emerald-500\"><\/span>\n <span class=\"font-bold text-xs text-slate-800\">1. BOJ \uae09\uc9c4\uc801 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-600\">\uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uac00\ud30c\ub978 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc5d4\ud654 \uac00\uce58\uac00 \ud3ed\ub4f1\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ubb34\uc9c8\uc11c\ud55c \uc5d4\uce90\ub9ac \uccad\uc0b0 \ubc1c\ubc1c \uc704\ud5d8.<\/p>\n <div class=\"mt-3 text-[11px] font-semibold text-emerald-700 bg-emerald-50 p-1.5 rounded\">\ud604\uc7ac: \uc810\uc9c4\uc801 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654 \uc911 (\uc548\uc815)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"p-4 bg-slate-50 rounded-xl border border-slate-200\">\n <div class=\"flex items-center gap-2 mb-2\">\n <span class=\"w-3 h-3 rounded-full bg-emerald-500\"><\/span>\n <span class=\"font-bold text-xs text-slate-800\">2. \ud558\uc774\uc77c\ub4dc OAS \ubc1c\uc791<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-600\">\ud558\uc774\uc77c\ub4dc \uc2e0\uc6a9 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uac00 4.0%~5.0% \uc774\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uae09\ub4f1\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc0ac\ubaa8 \uc2e0\uc6a9 \ubc0f CRE \ud30c\uc0b0 \uc804\uc774 \uc99d\uac70.<\/p>\n <div class=\"mt-3 text-[11px] font-semibold text-emerald-700 bg-emerald-50 p-1.5 rounded\">\ud604\uc7ac: 2.68% (\ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc548\uc815)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"p-4 bg-slate-50 rounded-xl border border-slate-200\">\n <div class=\"flex items-center gap-2 mb-2\">\n <span class=\"w-3 h-3 rounded-full bg-emerald-500\"><\/span>\n <span class=\"font-bold text-xs text-slate-800\">3. \ube45\ud14c\ud06c CapEx \ud558\ud5a5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-600\">\ube45\ud14c\ud06c\ub4e4\uc774 AI ROI \ud68c\uc758\ub860\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub97c \ud558\ud5a5\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud560\uc778\uc728\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\ub358 \uc774\uc775 \ubc29\ud654\ubcbd \ubd95\uad34.<\/p>\n <div class=\"mt-3 text-[11px] font-semibold text-emerald-700 bg-emerald-50 p-1.5 rounded\">\ud604\uc7ac: $600B+ \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc9c0\uc18d (\uc548\uc815)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n <section id=\"tab-strategy\" class=\"tab-content hidden space-y-6\">\n <div class=\"glass-card p-6 rounded-xl border-l-4 border-l-emerald-600\">\n <h2 class=\"text-lg font-bold text-slate-900 mb-2\">5. \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc0c1\ud669 \uc18d \ubd84\uc11d \ubc0f \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \ub300\uc751 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h2>\n <p class=\"text-slate-600 text-sm leading-relaxed\">\n \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc608\uace0(\ubaa9\ud45c 4.10%~4.25%)\ud588\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc99d\uc2dc\uac00 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \uc120\ubc18\uc601(Pricing-in) \uba54\ucee4\ub2c8\uc998\uc744 \uaddc\uba85\ud558\uace0, \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uac00 \ube44\uc911\uc744 \ud655\ub300\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294\uc9c0, \uad00\ub9dd\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc815\ubc00\ud55c \ubc14\ubca8(Barbell) \uc804\ub7b5 \uac00\uc774\ub4dc\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-12 gap-6\">\n <div class=\"lg:col-span-6 glass-card p-5 rounded-xl space-y-4\">\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900\">\uc9c8\ubb38 2 \ubd84\uc11d: \uae08\ub9ac \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc608\uc815\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub974\ub294 2\uac00\uc9c0 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\ub825<\/h3>\n \n <div class=\"p-4 bg-blue-50\/70 rounded-xl border border-blue-200 space-y-2\">\n <div class=\"font-bold text-xs text-blue-900 flex items-center gap-2\">\n <span class=\"px-2 py-0.5 bg-blue-900 text-white rounded text-[10px]\">\ub3d9\ub825 1<\/span>\n CME FedWatch \uc120\ubc18\uc601(Pricing-in)\uacfc \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud574\uc18c\n <\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 leading-relaxed\">\n \uc120\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 4.10%~4.25% \ucd5c\uc885 \uae08\ub9ac(Terminal Rate)\ub97c 85~93% \ud655\ub960\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud53c\ud560 \ubfd0, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uc545\uc7ac\ub294 \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \ucde8\uae09\ud558\uc5ec \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \uc18c\uba78 \ud638\uc7ac\ub85c \uc778\uc9c0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"p-4 bg-emerald-50\/70 rounded-xl border border-emerald-200 space-y-2\">\n <div class=\"font-bold text-xs text-emerald-900 flex items-center gap-2\">\n <span class=\"px-2 py-0.5 bg-emerald-900 text-white rounded text-[10px]\">\ub3d9\ub825 2<\/span>\n \ucd1d\uc694\uc18c\uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131(TFP) \ubd90\uacfc \uc790\uc5f0\uc774\uc790\uc728(r*)\uc758 \uc0c1\ud5a5\n <\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 leading-relaxed\">\n NBER \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 AI \ubc94\uc6a9 \uae30\uc220\uc740 \uc804\uccb4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uc744 \ucd5c\uc18c 2.7\ubc30 \uc99d\ud3ed\uc2dc\ud0b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \ub204\ub974\ub824 \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ud3ed\ubc1c\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138 \ubcc0\uc218\uac00 \uc774\ub97c \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub118\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"lg:col-span-6 glass-card p-5 rounded-xl space-y-4\">\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900\">\uc9c8\ubb38 3 \ub300\uc751: \ube44\uc911 \ud655\ub300 vs. \uad00\ub9dd \ud310\ub2e8 \uac00\uc774\ub4dc<\/h3>\n\n <div class=\"p-4 bg-slate-900 text-white rounded-xl\">\n <div class=\"text-xs text-amber-400 font-bold mb-1\">\ucd5c\uc885 \uacb0\ub860<\/div>\n <div class=\"text-lg font-bold mb-2\">\uc120\ubcc4\uc801 \ube44\uc911 \ud655\ub300 (Selective Overweight) \uc6b0\uc704<\/div>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-300 leading-relaxed\">\n \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 “\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\ub2e4”\ub294 \ub3c4\uc2dd\uc5d0 \uac07\ud600 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uad00\ub9dd(Wait-and-see)\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ub9c9\ub300\ud55c \uae30\ud68c\ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ucd08\ub798\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae30\uc5c5 \uc2e4\uc801 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \ud560\uc778\uc728 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub118\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\ubbc0\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb34\ub974\ub418 \uc6b0\ub7c9\uc8fc \uc704\uc8fc\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"space-y-2\">\n <div class=\"text-xs font-bold text-slate-800\">\ucd94\ucc9c \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \uc790\uc0b0 \ubc30\ubd84 \uad6c\uc870<\/div>\n <div class=\"w-full bg-slate-100 rounded-full h-4 flex overflow-hidden border border-slate-200\">\n <div class=\"bg-blue-900 text-[10px] text-white flex items-center justify-center font-bold\" style=\"width: 55%\">AI\/\uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac 55%<\/div>\n <div class=\"bg-emerald-600 text-[10px] text-white flex items-center justify-center font-bold\" style=\"width: 25%\">10\ub144\uad6d\ucc44\/BTC 25%<\/div>\n <div class=\"bg-amber-500 text-[10px] text-white flex items-center justify-center font-bold\" style=\"width: 20%\">\ud604\uae08\/\uc6b0\ub7c9\uc8fc 20%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"flex justify-between text-[11px] text-slate-500 pt-1\">\n <span>\u25a0 AI \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ubc0f HBM \ubc38\ub958\uccb4\uc778<\/span>\n <span>\u25a0 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc790\uc0b0 (\uad6d\ucc44 \uc790\ubcf8\ucc28\uc775 \/ \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778)<\/span>\n <span>\u25a0 \uace0\ubd80\ucc44 \uae30\uc5c5 \ud68c\ud53c \/ \ud604\uae08<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"glass-card p-5 rounded-xl\">\n <h3 class=\"font-bold text-slate-900 mb-3\">\ub9de\ucda4\ud615 \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5 \uc9c4\ub2e8 \uc9c4\ub2e8\uae30<\/h3>\n <p class=\"text-xs text-slate-500 mb-4\">\ubcf8\uc778\uc758 \ud22c\uc790 \uc131\ud5a5 \ubc0f \uc2dc\uac01\uc744 \uc120\ud0dd\ud558\uc5ec \ucd5c\uc801\uc758 \uc790\ubcf8 \ubc30\ubd84 \uac00\uc774\ub4dc\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/p>\n\n <div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 mb-4\">\n <div>\n <label class=\"text-xs font-semibold text-slate-700 block mb-1\">1. AI \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4<\/label>\n <select id=\"diag-ai\" onchange=\"runDiagnosis()\" class=\"w-full text-xs p-2.5 border border-slate-300 rounded-lg bg-white\">\n <option value=\"high\">\ub192\uc74c (\uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ubd90 \uc9c0\uc18d)<\/option>\n <option value=\"mid\">\ubcf4\ud1b5 (\uc77c\ubd80 \uacfc\uc5f4 \uc6b0\ub824)<\/option>\n <option value=\"low\">\ub0ae\uc74c (\ub2e8\uae30 \ubc84\ube14\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8)<\/option>\n <\/select>\n <\/div>\n <div>\n <label class=\"text-xs font-semibold text-slate-700 block mb-1\">2. \uae08\ub9ac 4.95%\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uac01<\/label>\n <select id=\"diag-rate\" onchange=\"runDiagnosis()\" class=\"w-full text-xs p-2.5 border border-slate-300 rounded-lg bg-white\">\n <option value=\"acceptable\">\uc774\uc775 \uc131\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \ud761\uc218 \uac00\ub2a5<\/option>\n <option value=\"risky\">\ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6c0<\/option>\n <\/select>\n <\/div>\n <div>\n <label class=\"text-xs font-semibold text-slate-700 block mb-1\">3. \uc5d4 \uce90\ub9ac \ub4f1 \ub9e4\ud06c\ub85c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc6b0\ub824<\/label>\n <select id=\"diag-risk\" onchange=\"runDiagnosis()\" class=\"w-full text-xs p-2.5 border border-slate-300 rounded-lg bg-white\">\n <option value=\"managed\">\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc120\ubc18\uc601\ub418\uc5b4 \ud1b5\uc81c \uac00\ub2a5<\/option>\n <option value=\"high\">\uac11\uc791\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ubc1c\uc791 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc874\uc7ac<\/option>\n <\/select>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div id=\"diag-output\" class=\"p-4 bg-slate-50 rounded-xl border border-slate-200 flex flex-col md:flex-row justify-between items-start md:items-center gap-4\">\n <div>\n <div class=\"text-xs text-slate-500\">\uc9c4\ub2e8\ub41c \uad8c\uc7a5 \uc804\ub7b5<\/div>\n <div id=\"diag-title\" class=\"text-base font-bold text-blue-900\">\uc801\uadf9\uc801 \ubc14\ubca8 \ube44\uc911 \ud655\ub300 (Aggressive Barbell Overweight)<\/div>\n <div id=\"diag-desc\" class=\"text-xs text-slate-600 mt-1\">HBM\/\uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc911\uc2ec\uc758 \uc8fc\ub3c4\uc8fc 60% \ubc30\uce58 + 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 20%\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \uc790\ubcf8\ucc28\uc775 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc870\ud569\uc744 \ucd94\ucc9c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <button onclick=\"switchTab('tab-macro')\" class=\"px-4 py-2 bg-blue-900 text-white rounded-lg text-xs font-semibold hover:bg-blue-800 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap\">\n \uac70\uc2dc \uadfc\uac70 \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ud558\uae30\n <\/button>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n <\/main>\n\n <footer class=\"bg-slate-900 text-slate-400 text-xs py-6 border-t border-slate-800 mt-12\">\n <div class=\"max-w-7xl mx-auto px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8 text-center space-y-2\">\n <p>2026 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd\uacfc \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac15\uc138\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc6d0\uc778 \ubd84\uc11d \ubc0f \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5 \ub300\uc2dc\ubcf4\ub4dc<\/p>\n <p class=\"text-slate-500\">\ubcf8 \ub300\uc2dc\ubcf4\ub4dc\ub294 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uc0dd\uc131\ub41c \ud0d0\uc0c9\uc6a9 \uc778\ud130\ub799\ud2f0\ube0c \ubaa8\ub4c8\uc774\uba70 \ud22c\uc790 \uad8c\uc720 \ubaa9\uc801\uc774 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/footer>\n\n <script>\n function switchTab(tabId) {\n document.querySelectorAll('.tab-content').forEach(el => el.classList.add('hidden'));\n document.querySelectorAll('.tab-btn').forEach(el => el.classList.remove('active'));\n \n document.getElementById(tabId).classList.remove('hidden');\n const activeBtn = document.getElementById('btn-' + tabId);\n if(activeBtn) activeBtn.classList.add('active');\n\n window.dispatchEvent(new Event('resize'));\n }\n\n let chartEpsRateInstance = null;\n let chartAcmDecompInstance = null;\n let chartHyOasInstance = null;\n let chartRoicWaccInstance = null;\n\n function initCharts() {\n const ctxEps = document.getElementById('chartEpsRate').getContext('2d');\n chartEpsRateInstance = new Chart(ctxEps, {\n type: 'bar',\n data: {\n labels: ['2023', '2024', '2025', '2026E', '2027E'],\n datasets: [\n {\n type: 'bar',\n label: 'S&P 500 EPS ($)',\n data: [220, 245, 270, 340, 385],\n backgroundColor: 'rgba(30, 58, 138, 0.85)',\n borderColor: 'rgba(30, 58, 138, 1)',\n borderWidth: 1,\n yAxisID: 'y'\n },\n {\n type: 'line',\n label: '\ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac (%)',\n data: [5.25, 4.50, 3.75, 4.00, 3.50],\n borderColor: 'rgba(217, 119, 6, 1)',\n backgroundColor: 'rgba(217, 119, 6, 0.2)',\n borderWidth: 3,\n pointRadius: 4,\n yAxisID: 'y1'\n }\n ]\n },\n options: {\n responsive: true,\n maintainAspectRatio: false,\n interaction: { mode: 'index', intersect: false },\n scales: {\n y: {\n type: 'linear',\n position: 'left',\n title: { display: true, text: 'EPS ($)', font: { size: 11 } }\n },\n y1: {\n type: 'linear',\n position: 'right',\n grid: { drawOnChartArea: false },\n title: { display: true, text: '\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac (%)', font: { size: 11 } }\n }\n },\n plugins: {\n legend: { position: 'bottom', labels: { boxWidth: 12, font: { size: 11 } } }\n }\n }\n });\n\n const ctxAcm = document.getElementById('chartAcmDecomp').getContext('2d');\n chartAcmDecompInstance = new Chart(ctxAcm, {\n type: 'bar',\n data: {\n labels: ['\uc804\uace0\uc810 \uad6d\ucc44 (5.05%)', '\ud604\uc7ac \uc548\uc815\ud654 (4.95%)'],\n datasets: [\n {\n label: '\uae30\ub300 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac (Expected Short Rate)',\n data: [3.75, 3.75],\n backgroundColor: 'rgba(13, 148, 136, 0.85)'\n },\n {\n label: '\uae30\uac04 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 (Term Premium)',\n data: [1.30, 1.20],\n backgroundColor: 'rgba(225, 29, 72, 0.85)'\n }\n ]\n },\n options: {\n responsive: true,\n maintainAspectRatio: false,\n scales: {\n x: { stacked: true },\n y: { stacked: true, max: 6, title: { display: true, text: '\uae08\ub9ac (%)', font: { size: 11 } } }\n },\n plugins: {\n legend: { position: 'bottom', labels: { boxWidth: 12, font: { size: 11 } } }\n }\n }\n });\n\n const ctxOas = document.getElementById('chartHyOas').getContext('2d');\n chartHyOasInstance = new Chart(ctxOas, {\n type: 'line',\n data: {\n labels: ['2008 \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30', '2020 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9', '2022 \uc778\uc0c1\uae30', '2026.09 \ud604\uc7ac'],\n datasets: [{\n label: 'ICE BofA High Yield OAS (%)',\n data: [18.5, 10.2, 5.8, 2.68],\n borderColor: 'rgba(217, 119, 6, 1)',\n backgroundColor: 'rgba(217, 119, 6, 0.15)',\n fill: true,\n tension: 0.2,\n pointRadius: 6,\n pointBackgroundColor: ['#dc2626', '#dc2626', '#d97706', '#059669']\n }]\n },\n options: {\n responsive: true,\n maintainAspectRatio: false,\n scales: {\n y: { title: { display: true, text: '\uc2e0\uc6a9 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc (%)', font: { size: 11 } } }\n },\n plugins: {\n legend: { position: 'bottom', labels: { boxWidth: 12, font: { size: 11 } } }\n }\n }\n });\n\n const ctxRoic = document.getElementById('chartRoicWacc').getContext('2d');\n chartRoicWaccInstance = new Chart(ctxRoic, {\n type: 'bar',\n data: {\n labels: ['\ube45\ud14c\ud06c \/ AI \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4', 'S&P 500 \ud3c9\uade0', '\ubd80\ucc44 \uacfc\ub2e4 \uc911\uc18c\ud615\uc8fc'],\n datasets: [\n {\n label: 'ROIC (\ud22c\ud558\uc790\ubcf8\uc218\uc775\ub960)',\n data: [45.0, 18.2, 6.5],\n backgroundColor: 'rgba(5, 150, 105, 0.85)'\n },\n {\n label: 'WACC (\uac00\uc911\ud3c9\uade0\uc790\ubcf8\ube44\uc6a9)',\n data: [11.0, 10.2, 12.5],\n backgroundColor: 'rgba(225, 29, 72, 0.85)'\n }\n ]\n },\n options: {\n responsive: true,\n maintainAspectRatio: false,\n scales: {\n y: { title: { display: true, text: '\uc218\uc775\ub960 \/ \ube44\uc6a9 (%)', font: { size: 11 } } }\n },\n plugins: {\n legend: { position: 'bottom', labels: { boxWidth: 12, font: { size: 11 } } }\n }\n }\n });\n }\n\n function updateSpreadSim() {\n const fedRate = parseFloat(document.getElementById('input-fed-rate').value);\n const rate10y = parseFloat(document.getElementById('input-10y-rate').value);\n\n document.getElementById('val-fed-rate').innerText = fedRate.toFixed(2) + '%';\n document.getElementById('val-10y-rate').innerText = rate10y.toFixed(2) + '%';\n\n const spread = rate10y - fedRate;\n const spreadElem = document.getElementById('res-spread');\n const statusElem = document.getElementById('res-status');\n const descElem = document.getElementById('res-desc');\n\n spreadElem.innerText = spread.toFixed(2) + '%p';\n\n if (spread <= 1.00) {\n spreadElem.className = 'text-xl font-extrabold text-teal-700';\n statusElem.className = 'text-xs font-bold px-2 py-1 rounded bg-teal-100 text-teal-800';\n statusElem.innerText = '\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \uc548\uc815\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ud68c\ubcf5 (\ubd88\uc7a5 \ud658\uacbd)';\n descElem.innerText = '\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uac00 1.00%p \uc774\ud558\ub85c \uc9c4\uc785\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ucc44\uad8c \uc790\uacbd\ub2e8\uc758 \ubb34\uc9c8\uc11c\ud55c 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'\uc801\uadf9\uc801 \ubc14\ubca8 \ube44\uc911 \ud655\ub300 (Aggressive Barbell Overweight)';\n descElem.innerText = 'AI \uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ubc38\ub958\uccb4\uc778 60% + 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 25% + \uc6b0\ub7c9 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc 15% \ubc30\ubd84\uc744 \ucd94\ucc9c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.';\n } else if (ai === 'low' || rate === 'risky') {\n titleElem.innerText = '\ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \uad00\ub9dd \ubc0f \ubc29\uc5b4\uc8fc \ubc30\ubd84 (Defensive Wait-and-See)';\n descElem.innerText = '\ud604\uae08 \ube44\uc911 30% \ud655\ubcf4 \ubc0f AI \uad00\ub828\uc8fc \uc911 \uc789\uc5ec\ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984(FCF)\uc774 \uac80\uc99d\ub41c \ucd5c\uc0c1\uc704 \ub300\ud615\uc8fc \uc911\uc2ec\uc73c\ub85c \ucd95\uc18c \ub300\uc751\uc744 \uad8c\uc7a5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.';\n } else {\n titleElem.innerText = '\uc911\ub9bd\uc801 \uc120\ubcc4 \ube44\uc911 \ud655\ub300 (Selective Neutral Overweight)';\n descElem.innerText = '\uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc911\uc2ec 40% + 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AI \uc139\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uace0\uc788\uace0, \ub9c8\uce58 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[95,96],"class_list":["post-340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-29","tag-95","tag-96"],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":false,"thumbnail":false,"medium":false,"medium_large":false,"large":false,"1536x1536":false,"2048x2048":false,"blogsy-small":false,"blogsy-small-tall":false,"blogsy-small-square":false,"blogsy-small-masonry":false,"blogsy-medium":false,"blogsy-medium-masonry":false,"blogsy-large":false,"blogsy-wide":false},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Arphile","author_link":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?author=1"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"\ub9ac\uc11c\uce58\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc544\ub798 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc740 Gemini \uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \ubd84\uc11d\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc624\ub974\ub294\ub370 \uc65c \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc624\ub974\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd84\uc11d\uae00\uc774\ub2e4. \uac1c\uc778\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c \ub0b4\uc6a9\ub4e4\uc774 \uc801\uc6a9\ub41c\uac8c \uc544\ub2cc\uac00 \uc2f6\ub2e4. 1. \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\uc548\uac10\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\uac83\uc774 \uc120\ubc18\uc601\ub418\uc5c8\ub294\ub370, \uc2e4\uc81c \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc545\uc7ac\uac00 \ud574\uc18c\ub41c\uac78\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ud55c\ub2e4. 2. 1\uc758 \uc774\uc288\ub85c \ub20c\ub824\uc11c \uc800\uac00\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc774 \ub41c \uc131\uc7a5\/\uac00\uce58\uc8fc\uac00 \uc800\ub834\ud574\uc84c\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0, \uadf8\ub85c\uc778\ud55c \uc800\uac00\ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4 3. AI \uc139\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uace0\uc788\uace0, \ub9c8\uce58…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=340"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":343,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340\/revisions\/343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}