{"id":360,"date":"2026-10-28T10:26:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T01:26:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?p=360"},"modified":"2026-10-28T10:32:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T01:32:06","slug":"261028-%ed%95%98%ec%9d%b4%eb%8b%89%ec%8a%a4-q3-%ec%96%b4%eb%8b%9d%ec%bd%9c-%ec%a0%95%eb%a6%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?p=360","title":{"rendered":"[261028] \ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4 Q3 \uc5b4\ub2dd\ucf5c \uc815\ub9ac"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \uc21c\uc774\uc775 \ud558\ub77d \uc6d0\uc778<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>\ud56d\ubaa9<\/th><th>\uae08\uc561<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>\uc678\ud658 \uad00\ub828 \uc190\uc2e4 (\ud658\uc728 \ud558\ub77d)<\/td><td><strong>11.6\uc870<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc0b0 \ud3c9\uac00\uc190\uc2e4<\/td><td><strong>22.9\uc870<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\uc21c\uc601\uc5c5\uc678\ube44\uc6a9 \ud569\uacc4<\/td><td>32.6\uc870<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ud658\uc728 \uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \uc804\uccb4\uc758 \uc57d 1\/3\ub85c, \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ucef8\uc74c.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud68c\uc0ac\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \uc5b4\ub290 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0ac\ub294\uc9c0 \uc774\ub984\uc744 \ub9d0\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uace0, \uc815\ud669\uc0c1 \ud0a4\uc625\uc2dc\uc544\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc74c\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud0a4\uc625\uc2dc\uc544 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 11\ub9cc\uc5d4\uc5d0\uc11c 5\ub9cc\uc5d4\ub300\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub0b4\ub824\uac14\uc74c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud68c\uc0ac\ub294 \uc6d0\ud654 \uac15\uc138\uac00 \uc601\uc5c5\uc774\uc775\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \uc791\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc7ac\ubb34 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub294 \uc88b\uc74c. \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud604\uae08\uc131 \uc790\uc0b0 114.5\uc870\uc6d0(+26.5\uc870\uc6d0), \uc21c\ud604\uae08 98.7\uc870\uc6d0, \ucc28\uc785\uae08 \ube44\uc728 5%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. CEO \ubc1c\ud45c: \uc194\ub9ac\ub2e4\uc784 IPO \uc911\ub2e8<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ub0b8\ub4dc \uc790\ud68c\uc0ac \uc194\ub9ac\ub2e4\uc784\uc758 <strong>\ud504\ub9acIPO\uc640 IPO \uac80\ud1a0\ub97c \uc911\ub2e8<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc774\uc720\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uacfc \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc870\uc815. \uc9c0\uae08 \uc0c1\uc7a5\ud558\uba74 \uae30\ub300\ud55c \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;\uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \ud22c\uc790\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\uc628 \uc131\uacfc\ub294 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uc8fc\uc8fc\uc5d0\uac8c \ub3cc\ub824\uc900\ub2e4&#8221;\ub294 \uc6d0\uce59\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac15\uc870.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. 3\ubd84\uae30 \uc2e4\uc801 \uc138\ubd80<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>DRAM<\/strong>: \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ucd9c\ud558\ub7c9 \uc57d +10%, \ud3c9\uade0\ud310\ub9e4\uac00\uaca9(ASP)\uc740 20% \ud6c4\ubc18 \uc0c1\uc2b9. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>HBM4 \ubcf8\uaca9 \ucd9c\ud558\uc640 \uc11c\ubc84\uc6a9 DDR5 \ud310\ub9e4(+40% \uc774\uc0c1)\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub428.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>NAND<\/strong>: \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uace0\ubd80\uac00 SSD \uc704\uc8fc\ub85c \ud314\uba74\uc11c \ucd9c\ud558\ub7c9\uc740 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc904\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc ASP\uac00 +20% \uc62c\ub790\uc74c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc601\uc5c5\uc774\uc775\ub960 80%, EBITDA 87.7\uc870\uc6d0(\ub9c8\uc9c4 84%). 6\uac1c \ubd84\uae30 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc2e4\uc801.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \uc804\ub9dd<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac <strong>\uacf5\uae09 \ubd80\uc871\uc774 2030\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2027\ub144 \uc218\uc694 \uc99d\uac00\uc728\uc740 DRAM 20% \uc911\ubc18, NAND 10% \ud6c4\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4\ubd84\uae30 DRAM \ucd9c\ud558\ub7c9\uc740 <strong>+20% \uc911\ubc18<\/strong>\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. 1\ub098\ub178 \uacf5\uc815 \ud655\ub300\uc640 M15X \uacf5\uc7a5 \uac00\ub3d9 \ud655\ub300 \ub355\ubd84\uc784.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4\ubd84\uae30 NAND \ucd9c\ud558\ub7c9\uc740 \ud55c \uc790\ub9bf\uc218 \uc99d\uac00\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>4\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 HBM4\uac00 HBM3E\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4 \uc8fc\ub825 \uc81c\ud488\uc774 \ub420\uac83\uc784.<\/strong> \ucd9c\ud558\ub7c9\uacfc \ub9e4\ucd9c \ube44\uc911 \ubaa8\ub450\uc784.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>2027\ub144 HBM \ubb3c\ub7c9\uacfc \uac00\uaca9 \ud611\uc0c1\uc744 \ub9c8\ucce4\uc74c.<\/strong> HBM\uacfc \uc77c\ubc18 D\ub7a8\uc758 \uc218\uc775\uc131 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \ud06c\uac8c \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\uc74c.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2027\ub144 \uc124\ube44\ud22c\uc790(CAPEX)\ub294 \ud06c\uac8c \ub298\uc5b4\ub0a0 \uc608\uc815\uc784. -&gt; \uc6a9\uc778 1\uae30 \ud339 \uac00\ub3d9 \ub4f1\uc774 \uc774\uc720\uc784.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. \uc7a5\uae30\uacf5\uae09\uacc4\uc57d(LTA)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub300\ud615 \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\ub4dc \uae30\uc5c5\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud574 <strong>14\uac1c \uace0\uac1d\uc0ac\uc640 <\/strong>\uacc4\uc57d\ud588\uc74c. \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uae30\uac04\uc740 \uae30\ubcf8 5\ub144\uc774\uace0, \uc77c\ubd80 \uace0\uac1d\uacfc\ub294 \uc5f0\uc7a5\uc744 \ub17c\uc758 \uc911.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc774\ubbf8 \uacc4\uc57d\ub41c \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc774 <strong>2027~28\ub144 \uc804\uccb4 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub2a5\ub825\uc758 50% \uc774\uc0c1<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \ubc94\uc704 \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud568. \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uc608\uce58\uae08\uc774 \uc788\uc5b4 \uace0\uac1d\uc774 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc0ac\ub3c4\ub85d \ud558\ub294 \uc7a5\uce58\ub3c4 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc788\uc74c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. \uc8fc\uc8fc\ud658\uc6d0 (\uc57d 100\uc870\uc6d0)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026 \ud68c\uacc4\uc5f0\ub3c4 \uae30\uc900 <strong>\ud604\uae08\ubc30\ub2f9 30\uc870\uc6d0 \uc774\uc0c1 + \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc \ub9e4\uc785\u00b7\uc18c\uac01 60\uc870\uc6d0 \uc774\uc0c1<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>8\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c 40\uc870\uc6d0\uc5b4\uce58 \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc\ub294 \ub9e4\uc785\uc744 \ub9c8\ucce4\uace0 \uace7 \uc18c\uac01\ud560\uac83\uc784.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \ubc30\ub2f9 14\uc870\uc6d0(\uc8fc\ub2f9 2\ub9cc\uc6d0)\uacfc \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc \ub9e4\uc785 20\uc870\uc6d0\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud588\uc74c.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc 20\uc870\uc6d0 \uc911 10\uc870\uc6d0\uc740 \uc18c\uac01\ud558\uace0, 10\uc870\uc6d0\uc740 \uc784\uc9c1\uc6d0 \ubcf4\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc4f8 \uc608\uc815\uc784(\uc774 10\uc870\uc6d0\uc740 100\uc870\uc6d0\uc5d0 \ud3ec\ud568\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc74c).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud0a4\uc625\uc2dc\uc544 \ud2b9\ubcc4\ubc30\ub2f9\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 1\ub9cc\uc6d0\uc774 \ub05d\uc774 \uc544\ub2d8.<\/strong> \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ub098\uba38\uc9c0\ub294 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uacb0\uc0b0 \ubc30\ub2f9\uc5d0 \ud3ec\ud568 \ub420\uac83\uc784.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud68c\uc0ac\uac00 <strong>&#8220;\uc9c0\uae08 \uc8fc\uac00\ub294 \uc800\ud3c9\uac00\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4&#8221;<\/strong>\uace0 \uc9c1\uc811 \ub9d0\ud588\uc74c\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc \ub9e4\uc785\uc744 \ub9e4 \ubd84\uae30 \uacc4\uc18d\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\uc74c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">7. \uc9c8\uc758\uc751\ub2f5 \ud575\uc2ec<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>\uc9c8\ubb38\uc790<\/th><th>\uc9c8\ubb38<\/th><th>\ub2f5\ubcc0 \uc694\uc57d<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>\uc528\ud2f0<\/td><td>AI \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d\ub420\uae4c?<\/td><td>\ud558\uc774\ud37c\uc2a4\ucf00\uc77c\ub7ec \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\ub4dc \ub9e4\ucd9c\uc774 +30~80%, \uc218\uc8fc\uc794\uace0\ub294 2~5\ubc30 \ub298\uc5c8\ub2e4. <br>\ud22c\uc790 \uc8fc\uccb4\ub3c4 \uae30\uc5c5, \uad6d\uac00(\uc18c\ubc84\ub9b0 AI) \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ub113\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud568.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\uba54\ub9ac\uce20<\/td><td>\ubc30\ub2f9\uacfc \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc \ubc30\ubd84 \uae30\uc900\uc740?<\/td><td>\ubc30\ub2f9\uc740 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ud558\uace0, \ub098\uba38\uc9c0\ub294 \uc800\ud3c9\uac00 \ud310\ub2e8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc\uc5d0 \uc4f4\ub2e4\uace0 \ud568.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\uace8\ub4dc\ub9cc<\/td><td>LTA \uc774\ud6c4 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc5ec\ub825\uc740?<\/td><td><strong>\u201c2029\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 3\ub144\uac04 DRAM\uacfc HBM \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc740 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 sold out\u201d<\/strong>\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub2f5\ud568.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BofA<\/td><td>\uacfc\uc789\uc0dd\uc0b0 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740?<\/td><td>\uacf5\uc7a5 \uac74\ubb3c\uc740 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc9d3\ub418 \ud074\ub9b0\ub8f8\uc740 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc5f0\ub2e4. \uc218\uc694\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uc870\uc808\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4 \ub77c\ub294\uac83\uc784.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>JP\ubaa8\uac74<\/td><td>HBM4 \uc9c4\ud589 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740?<\/td><td>\uc218\uc728\uc774 \uacc4\ud68d\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc88b\uc544\uc11c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ub192\ud614\ub2e4. <br>\uc8fc\uc694 \uace0\uac1d\uc5d0\uac8c \uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \uacf5\uae09\uc0ac(First Supplier)\uc774\uba70, \ucee4\uc2a4\ud140 HBM\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \ucd94\uc9c4\uc911 \uc774\ub2e4.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SK\uc99d\uad8c<\/td><td>HBM \uc801\uce35 \uc218\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4 \uc6b0\ub824\ub294?<\/td><td>\uacf5\uae09\uc774 \ubd80\uc871\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc99d\uac70\ub77c\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. <br><strong>\uace0\uac1d \uc694\uccad \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc774 \uacf5\uae09 \uac00\ub2a5\ub7c9\uc758 2\ubc30\uac00 \ub118\ub294\ub2e4.<\/strong> <br>2027\ub144 HBM \uc218\uc775\uc131\uc740 \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uac8c \uc88b\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\ubbf8\ub798\uc5d0\uc14b<\/td><td>\ucc28\uc138\ub300 4F\u00b2 D\ub7a8 \uae30\uc220\uc740?<\/td><td>\uae30\uc874 6F\u00b2 \uad6c\uc870\ub97c EUV\ub85c \ucd5c\ub300\ud55c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ub2e4\uc74c 4F\u00b2\ub098 3D D\ub7a8\uc73c\ub85c \ub118\uc5b4\uac08 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NH<\/td><td>AI\uc6a9 \ub0b8\ub4dc \uc218\uc694\ub294?<\/td><td>AI \ucd94\ub860 \ub370\uc774\ud130(KV \uce90\uc2dc)\ub97c SSD\uc5d0 \uc800\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc0dd\uae30\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. <br>SALT-KV, HBF \uac19\uc740 \uae30\uc220\ub85c \ub300\uc751\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1. \uc21c\uc774\uc775 \ud558\ub77d \uc6d0\uc778 \ud56d\ubaa9 \uae08\uc561 \uc678\ud658 \uad00\ub828 \uc190\uc2e4 (\ud658\uc728 \ud558\ub77d) 11.6\uc870 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc0b0 \ud3c9\uac00\uc190\uc2e4 22.9\uc870 \uc21c\uc601\uc5c5\uc678\ube44\uc6a9 \ud569\uacc4 32.6\uc870 2. CEO \ubc1c\ud45c: \uc194\ub9ac\ub2e4\uc784 IPO \uc911\ub2e8 3. 3\ubd84\uae30 \uc2e4\uc801 \uc138\ubd80 4. \uc804\ub9dd 5. \uc7a5\uae30\uacf5\uae09\uacc4\uc57d(LTA) 6. \uc8fc\uc8fc\ud658\uc6d0 (\uc57d 100\uc870\uc6d0) 7. \uc9c8\uc758\uc751\ub2f5 \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c8\ubb38\uc790 \uc9c8\ubb38 \ub2f5\ubcc0 \uc694\uc57d \uc528\ud2f0 AI \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d\ub420\uae4c? \ud558\uc774\ud37c\uc2a4\ucf00\uc77c\ub7ec \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\ub4dc \ub9e4\ucd9c\uc774 +30~80%, \uc218\uc8fc\uc794\uace0\ub294 2~5\ubc30 \ub298\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ud22c\uc790 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[62,94,100],"class_list":["post-360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-38","tag-sk","tag-94","tag-100"],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":false,"thumbnail":false,"medium":false,"medium_large":false,"large":false,"1536x1536":false,"2048x2048":false,"blogsy-small":false,"blogsy-small-tall":false,"blogsy-small-square":false,"blogsy-small-masonry":false,"blogsy-medium":false,"blogsy-medium-masonry":false,"blogsy-large":false,"blogsy-wide":false},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Arphile","author_link":"https:\/\/www.arphile.net\/?author=1"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"1. \uc21c\uc774\uc775 \ud558\ub77d \uc6d0\uc778 \ud56d\ubaa9 \uae08\uc561 \uc678\ud658 \uad00\ub828 \uc190\uc2e4 (\ud658\uc728 \ud558\ub77d) 11.6\uc870 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc0b0 \ud3c9\uac00\uc190\uc2e4 22.9\uc870 \uc21c\uc601\uc5c5\uc678\ube44\uc6a9 \ud569\uacc4 32.6\uc870 2. 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